2018 Kentucky Derby: Updated Saturday Odds, Last-Minute Betting Tips, and How the Mud Can Be Run

by Danette J. Ellerman | October 2, 2019 8:51 pm

A wet track can suggest plenty of things, however the foremost component it approach is that the horses that get in front will generally tend to stay there, because the horses back in the subject who’re having huge clouds of dust thrown of their faces may have greater problem weaving  through to assignment at their tactical exceptional.  Mendelssohn and Magnum Moon, breaking from the fourteen and sixteen slots, respectively, may have daunting trips from that a ways outside.  It may be that they certainly won’t mind, like Preakness winner Exaggerator.  But no person accessible right now, consisting of Justify, has been tested this manner but.

 

 

You Can Almost Hear the Crowd: Audible galloping the day prior to this at Churchill Downs. (Photo through Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

 

More on these and other questions as we name inside the Bluegrass Wise Man ™ to walk us via today’s maze of plays, but earlier than that, the early Saturday odds. We’ll replace the odds regularly on this space until publish time.

 

(Post Position, Horse, Track Odds)

 

1.Firenze Fire, 60-1

 

2 Free Drop Billy, forty three-1

 

three Promises Fulfilled, 47-1

 

four Flame away, 45-1

 

five Audible, 6-1

 

6 Good Magic, 9-1

 

7 Justify, three-1

 

8 Lone Sailor, 24-1

 

nine Hofburg, 26-1

 

10 My Boy Jack, 5-1

 

11 Bolt D’Oro, 8-1

 

12 Enticed, 56-1

 

thirteen Bravazo, 69-1

 

14 Mendelssohn, 7-1

 

15 Installed Regard, 99-1

 

16 Magnum Moon, 13-1

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17 Solomini, 67-1

 

18 Vino Rosso, 14-1

 

19 Noble Indy, 60-1

 

20 Combatant, 77-1

 

 

(Odds up to date: 4:45 p.M., 5/five/2018. Source: Churchill Downs)

 

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Out For a Spin:  Bolt d’Oro at his morning workout the day past at Churchill Downs. (Photo by way of Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

 

Post time is bearing down on us. Give us some performs.

 

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Go for the trifecta. Here are some numbers for you. Last yr the two-greenback trifecta paid $sixteen,594. It becomes a $31-million dollar pool, to be able to be the equal or greater nowadays, however the reason the wager paid properly become, first, it turned into raining, and Always Dreaming got here in, with bombs, at 33-1 and 40-1, proper in the back of him. The 2017 superfecta, the pinnacle 4, paid $ seventy-five grand. With the favorite on top, proper? So, shall we embrace you play Justify on a pinnacle and the complete field below him? That bet will value you 3 hundred dollars and then some, however, it will likely be a fun one. Especially if it is a wet song. You can also place a few others up top, like Mendelssohn, and play it across who you suspect is probably properly on a fast track.   What with the rain now, it seems like a few forms of play like that with a couple of bombs goes to be the component.

 

 

Good Magic, Excellently Ripped and Running: Trained by Chad Brown, Good Magic takes a preservation gallop at Churchill Downs on May 3rd. (Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

 

This is a good second to endure down on a some of the present day possible bombs who you’ve visible this week at Churchill.

 

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: The horse that I suppose ought to do properly is Good Magic. Nobody spoke lots about him, but his odds came down as the week rolled on, so we will see, the chatter on him may be starting now. But it truly is not the principal factor. He beat Bolt D’Oro, breaking his maiden within the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Chad Brown delivered him to Keeneland, and he received the Bluegrass, which reductions him a little due to the fact we haven’t had lotta Derby winners pop out of that prep. But Chad is a master horseman. He’s acknowledged to be more of a turf teacher than dust, but his stats on dust are every bit as suitable as on turf. Good Magic’s breaking from the six, so he is gonna be nice. He regarded splendid, his hind quit, his motor if you’ll, he is simply were given a huge engine lower back there so as to help him recover from a few grounds. He’s well mannered, he knows his process and has a few duration to him.  Has one of the quality jockeys going in Jose Ortiz. He may want to nicely be on the board.

 

Anybody else stands out this week for the duration of workout routines?

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Bluegrass Wise Man ™: My Boy Jack stuck my eye. He has the equal connections as Exaggerator, the Desormeaux. He’s a closer breaking from the ten hollow, so it could installation for him breaking smooth. The main point approximately him is that he’s run at three different tracks already this yr, and doesn’t appear to be bothered by using any of them, so he is a warrior. His sire is rising as a prevailing sire. He ought to well hit the board and you’re gonna get a fee. He has come manner down this morning as properly, to five-1, so I’m no longer so positive he can be called a bomb proper this second. It can be the rain doing that.  He’s working his manner into the first flight of the faves.  He’s interesting to me, but not that right, so we might also see his odds bounce back up.

 

Let’s say you are building a superfecta listing this yr.

 

 

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Another like My Boy Jack is Lone Sailor, who could nevertheless carry a fee, which is to mention, although extra human beings are looking at him, he became floating early this morning among 28-1 and 29-1. Lone Sailor could make an excellent play in a superfecta at the side of My Boy Jack to spherical it out. On appearance, out at Churchill this week, he appeared exceptional.

 

 

Moving directly to some of the authentic favorites, how did Mendelssohn appearance this week?

 

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: You recognize, he becomes simply busting to get out and run, nickering, yelling, full of beans, the loudest issue accessible below his rider. We’ll see what the cash says a little later, but I’d toss him in an exacta. My fondness for My Boy Jack in advance within the week might outweigh that because the day wears on, but Mendelssohn has demonstrated extra than My Boy Jack has and can take care of the stuff, as he proved at Del Mar, after which in Dubai. This isn’t always (teacher) Aidan O’Brien’s first rodeo. He’s performed it before. Mendelssohn will depend.

 

 

Taking a Turn, Straining to Break Free: Justify pulling difficult towards his workout rider on May third.  (Photo by way of Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

 

The windows can be open to the tune in a few hours, this means that it’s the appropriate time that allows you to terrify us with some greater of what you noticed in Justify this week.

 

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: When he walks by way of you, you know it.  He is the man of this race.  If you take a look at that shot of his May third gallop, it tells us plenty.  His mouth is open, which means that he’s pulling hard against the bit.  Look at where his rider’s feet are — we call that having his feet ‘on the dash.’  The motive for that is that he wishes a brace to pull as hard as he’s pulling against the horse. That exercising riders again is aching and stinging him right now due to the fact he’s pulling again in opposition to Justify’s massive neck.  Look at Justify’s ears.  One of them is kinda half cocked lower back to his rider, and that’s announcing, hi there, can you lighten up on those reins a little bit in order that I can run?  In different words, he is ready.  If you upload that to Baffert’s records, he’s won four Derbies, six Preaknesses,  Belmonts and a Triple Crown.  He says Justify is the satisfactory-looking colt he is ever offered right here.  I’d

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